Fair Value Assessment for Industrial Goods Stocks in Indonesia Post-Pandemic

Many industrial sectors were severely affected during the pandemic, which lasted from 2020 to 2021. Such indicators can be observed in various companies implementing efficiency measures ranging from cost reduction unrelated to revenue growth to layoff policies. Despite being under pressure due to the pandemic, many industrial subsectors experienced significant growth in the second quarter of 2021, according to statistics from the Ministry of Industry. This study aims to determine the fair value of shares in Industrial Goods companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This approach uses a discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology with free cash flow to the company and relative valuation through price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios. From 2017 to 2021, historical financial data was utilized to forecast future income and expenditure behavior in three scenarios: optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic. The results showed that the DCF-FCFF technique underestimated IMPC, ARNA, and UNTR. MARK is overvalued in pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic scenarios, while MARK is undervalued in optimistic scenarios. HEXA is overvalued in the pessimistic scenario but undervalued in the moderate and optimistic scenario. ARNA and UNTR were overvalued in all relative assessment scenarios using the PER approach, but MARK and HEXA were undervalued. IMPC is undervalued in a gloomy scenario and overpriced in a moderate and optimistic scenario. In all cases, the PBV method overestimates IMPC, ARNA, MARK, HEXA, and UNTR. The study implies that investors should conduct thorough due diligence before making investment decisions, considering company-specific factors and broader market conditions. Companies in the Industrial Goods sector must be ready to adapt to changing market dynamics and prioritize long-term value creation to attract and maintain investor confidence. © 2023 by the authors. Licensee SSBFNET, Istanbul, Turkey. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (


Introduction
Many business sectors were adversely affected during the 2020-2021 pandemic.Many business actors have implemented cost-cutting policies unrelated to revenue growth.Based on a report from BPS 2020, 32.66% of businesses reduced working hours, 17.06% of businesses housed their employees for free, and 12.83% laid off employees for short periods.35.56% of companies chose to reduce their workforce, and 52.23% were in the mining industry.(BPS, 2020) Based on the 2020 databox in Muslim (2020), ten start-ups have reduced their workforce in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Companies reducing workforce
Despite experiencing a slowdown due to the pandemic, the Ministry of Industry noted that data shows several industrial subsectors will experience rapid growth in the second quarter of 2021.It is expected that companies in this industrial subsector will be able to maintain their growth after the pandemic.According to the Indonesian GDP Statistics Bureau report for 2018-2022, the country's economic structure will remain unchanged over the past five years.On average, 19.66% of each quarterly payment is contributed by industry subsectors.(Ministry of Industry, 2021) (BPS, 2022) The capital market is an investment tool with high risk and high return.This shows that investors can earn huge profits but are also exposed to enormous dangers if capital market investments are not handled effectively (Damodaran, 2012).Investors in the capital market at any time face the possibility of experiencing fluctuations in stock prices.
Based on daily return data for the last ten years (2012 to 2022), as shown in Figure 2, the highest stock price volatility occurred in March 2020.IDX Composite return reached its lowest point on March 9, 2020, with a return of -6.58 percent, before strengthening again with a return of 0.1 percent on March 16, 2020.This shows that the level of volatility will affect the risk that investors will bear.The fluctuations in the five share prices of industrial goods companies that are the focus of this study can also be observed more clearly in Figure 3.The data used is stock prices from 2017 to 2022.More details are shown in Figure 4.This image presents stock prices on exact dates from 2017 to 2022.Overall, UNTR's share price is in first position, followed by HEXA, IMPC, ARNA, and MARK in last position.The stock prices of these five companies are stable every day.The fluctuations in the five stock returns of industrial goods companies that are the focus of this study can also be observed more clearly in Figure 5. Share prices from 2017 to 2022 are used.These fluctuating stock prices and returns serve as signals and alerts for investors to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the portfolio they wish to invest in to ensure the safety of their cash and generate substantial income (Graham, 2003).
In addition, investors will never pay more than the asset's value.This statement seems logical and straightforward but is often forgotten (Damodaran, 2012).
Stock valuation is one of the most important parts of capital market investment.Making the right or wrong decision about stock valuation can have severe consequences for individual investors and the stability and efficiency of the market as a whole.Stock misjudgment can lead to market volatility.When many investors make similar mistakes in valuing a company, it can lead to illogical price fluctuations and dangerous market bubbles.Furthermore, if the stock is too expensive and the investor decides to acquire it, he risks losing much money if the stock price falls to its actual value.If, on the other hand, stocks (Myers & Majluf, 2002).
Based on the conditions already described, the objective of this study is to conduct an analysis of the intrinsic value of industrial goods companies in 2021 using financial data from 2016 to 2020.The findings of this research can be used as strategic input by investors when making an investment decision and by companies to improve financial performance in the future.

Literature Review
There are two opposing viewpoints on valuation.Some believe judgment is an exact science with little room for analyst interpretation and human error.On the contrary, some believe that judgment is an art in which analysts' intelligence can manipulate their desired results (Damodaran, 2012).The primary purpose of an investor in investing is to profit from an asset by buying assets below market -20.00% -10.00% value (Damodaran, 2012).Valuation establishes a company's value, business ownership interests, security, or assets when one or more methods cannot be used (Hitchner, 2017).
Investors base their investment portfolio decisions on the valuation of the company.Because investment decisions based on discounted cash flows replace accounting-based cash flow income and explicitly reflect the time value of money, the time value of money theory supports present value (Damodaran, 2015).Intrinsic value is calculated using the DCF-FCFF method and validated using the RV method with the price-earnings ratio and price-to-book value.The intrinsic value of an asset is determined by projecting future cash flows and discounting them to the present value.The present value rule states that the value of an asset is equal to the present value of anticipated future financial flows (Damodaran, 2012).
A valuation method that implies the value of an asset is obtained from the valuation of comparable assets normalized using standard variables, such as income, cash flow, book value, or income, known as relative valuation.This method uses the industry's average price-earnings ratio to evaluate firms, assuming that other firms are comparable to the companies being valued and that the market appropriately values these firms on average (Damodaran, 2012).Some previous studies were used as references to determine calculation methods, how to execute calculations, and how to conduct evaluations.
In 2021, Gilbran and Hendrawan (2022)  The DCF-FCFF method stipulates that the fair value of INTP, SMCB, and SMBR shares is overvalued in all scenarios, while SMGR is undervalued.Dalilah and Hendrawan (2021) researched to determine the fair value of pharmaceutical equity listed on the IDX based on historical financial records from 2013 to 2020 to estimate 2021 to 2025.This study used the DCF method with the FCFF approach and the RV method with the PER and PBV approaches.The findings of this study, using the DCF-FCFF approach, are that KAEF and PYFA share prices are overpriced in all scenarios, but KLBF and DVLA share prices are undervalued in all situations.
Hasan and Hendrawan (2020) researched to determine the intrinsic share value of metal and mineral mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2018 using DCF.They verified the results using the RV -PER and PBV methods.The results showed that ANTM's share price was undervalued in each scenario, while INCO and TINS's share prices were overvalued in each scenario.Analysis of P/E and PBV shows that all share prices are within the industry range, which shows that the valuation results are accurate.
Hidayat and Hendrawan (2020) examined to estimate the fair value of PT Telkomsel's shares in the Initial Public Offering plan using FCFF and DDM methodologies.This study used pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic scenarios.The financial data used is historical from 2012-2017 to the 2018-2022 project.In these three scenarios, Telkomsel's share price ranges between 80% and 93% of the market price (TLKM).The result obtained in this research is that the FCFF assessment is within the acceptable range.The RV method can be used to estimate PER, and PBV shows that Telkomsel's PBV is above the average for the telecommunications industry while its PER is still within the industry's reach.
In 2018, Hendrawan et al. (2019) examined the fair value of the Listed Regional Development Bank on the IDX.According to the findings of this study, by utilizing FCFE assessments, BJBR and BJTM were overvalued in all scenarios, and BJTs were undervalued in all scenarios.In the PER and PBV methodology, the PER and PBV of all samples in the study are within the industry range, indicating that the calculations are correct, except for the PBV for BEKS in the moderate and optimistic scenario, which is insignificant.This research recommends selling BJBR and BJTM shares and buying BEKS shares.
Cahyono and Hendrawan (2019) investigated the fair value of share prices for coal mining companies listed on the IDX.Using the Discounted Cash Flow Method with the Free Cash Flow to the Firm approach, validating the results using the relative valuation method with the PER and PBV approaches.The sample of this study includes the top three coal mining companies: ADRO, BYAN, and PTBA.The results of this study revealed that the fair value of ADRO, BYAN, and PTBA was undervalued in all scenarios when applying the DCF-FCFF approach.Furthermore, the relative assessment method in the PER and PBV approaches revealed that the PER and PBV of all samples in the study were within the industry range, indicating that the calculation results were correct.
Laitinen (2019) researched to investigate the characteristics of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method to measure startup financial performance.DCF is typically the most common method for valuing startup businesses, in addition to internal rates of return and payback periods.
Neaxie and Hendrawan (2017) examined stock valuations in Indonesian telecommunications companies using discounted cash flow (DCF) and relative valuation techniques.Financial statements from 2006-2016 are historical data for the 2017-2020 forecast.In an optimistic scenario, an investigation of the DCF method revealed that the intrinsic values of TLKM and EXCL were undervalued, whereas ISAT was overvalued.TLKM is intrinsically undervalued in the moderate scenario, whereas ISAT and EXCL are overvalued.In a pessimistic scenario, TLKM, ISAT, and EXCL are intrinsically overvalued.Using the PER method, the intrinsic value of TLKM and EXCL is undervalued, while the intrinsic value of ISAT is overvalued.In the multiple PBV and EBITDA methods, the intrinsic value of TLKM is overvalued, while ISAT and EXCL are undervalued.Anggraeni et al. (2017) examined the share prices of each sample company (in the infrastructure, utilities, and transportation sectors) using the FCFE method and Relative Valuation using the PER approach.Furthermore, based on the results of the two evaluation techniques, the study aims to determine whether the stock price of each company is undervalued, fair-valued, or overvalued.If a stock is known to be undervalued, moderately valued, or overvalued, then it is recommended that investors make more informed investment decisions.

Research and Methodology
This study uses the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method with the Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) methodology to assess stocks.
The results are then validated using the Relative Valuation (RV) method, which uses the Price Earning Ratio (PER) and price-tobook value (PBV) methodologies.
The DCF approach calculates the present value of predicted future cash flows by discounting cash flows at a predetermined level of risk.DCF is divided into two methodologies in the context of corporate valuation, namely the Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) technique, which determines the company's value by considering current investment and asset growth.Furthermore, the second approach to evaluating a company's stock or equity is free cash flow to equity (FCFE) (Damodaran, 2012).
The FCFF valuation approach was chosen in this study because FCFF can measure the company's overall value for all financing parties, both owners and parties providing equity loans at appropriate interest rates.Meanwhile, FCFE only measures the value of a company in terms of equity (Afriani & Asthma, 2019).The FCFF method is more commonly used, given stock exchange recommendations or profitability evaluations made by financial analysts employed by companies.As a result, analysts must determine a weighted average cost of capital, indicating how much remuneration the company should provide to all entities providing equity (Cegłowski &;Podgorski, 2012).
Using Relative Valuation (RV) with Price-Earnings Ratio (PER) and Price-to-Book Value (PBV) techniques, the intrinsic value must be validated.Valuation results are applicable if the PER and PBV are within the range for the industry (Hasan & Hendrawan, 2020).IDX Q4 2021 statistical data shows that the industry ranges between the lowest and highest PER and PBV.
This study uses purposive random sampling, where objects are selected for specific purposes based on certain attributes (Sekaran & Bougie, 2016).Positive revenue and EBIT growth are the main attributes for sampling and facilitating the use of the DCF method (Damodaran, 2012).Market capitalization is also a criterion because it affects financial variables such as the price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book value used in this study (Pavone, 2019).Of the 33 companies listed on the IDX as a population, five were selected as the object of this study, namely PT.Impact Pratama Industri Tbk, PT.Arwana Citra Mulia Tbk, PT.Mark Dynamics Indonesia Tbk, PT Hexindo Adiperkasa Tbk, and PT United Tractors Tbk (IDX, 2021).
The selection of these five companies as research objects is based on several strategic reasons relevant to the objectives of this study.These five companies have complete data on availability, positive revenue, and EBIT growth over the past five years, as well as significant market capitalization levels based on data from the IDX Statistical Report 2021 DCF starts with the analysis of financial data of the company's financial performance from 2017 to 2021 (Zemba &;Hendrawan, 2018).DCF analysis entails increases in average annual revenue and the portion of average operating expenses, capital expenditures, depreciation or amortization, and delta working capital.The financial strategy forecasts the company's revenue and FCFF over the next five years (Hendrawan &;Permadi, 2020).
Terminal values are calculated using FCFF values after the forecast year, assuming sustainable growth (Nissim, 2019).WACC is calculated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) (Chanifah et al., 2020) of the latest capital structure, debt, and cost of equity.Using WACC as the discount rate, enterprise value (EV) is obtained by combining all FCFF and terminal values projected to date.Subtracting EV from debt and adding it to cash and cash equivalents yields an equity value.The intrinsic value per share can be estimated by dividing the equity value by the number of shares outstanding.
The movement of gross profit has a more significant relationship, so the company's growth is measured by the increase in gross profit rather than net profit (Damodaran, 2012).The pessimistic scenario is when the company experiences the lowest growth, equal to industry growth and lower company growth.A moderate situation is when a company has typical growth equal to more significant industry or company growth.An optimistic scenario is when the company experiences optimal growth, comparable to a moderate scenario and coupled with a spread between industry and company growth (Gilbran &;Hendrawan, 2022).Terminal figures are calculated assuming that the company's constant growth is proportional to the growth in the worst-case scenario.
The previous research mentioned implies that the DCF method can be used to analyze the intrinsic value of stocks.Therefore, this study wants to know the use of the DCF method with the FCFF approach to assess stock valuations in the Fair Value Assessment of Industrial Goods Stocks in Post-Pandemic Indonesia based on data on the IDX.

Results
The method chosen to conduct a valuation analysis of this research object is Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) with a Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) approach.The assessment results from this method will then be compared with the analysis results using the Relative Valuation (RV) method to validate the previously generated estimates.
Due to the uncertainty of the company's future status, determining assumptions and forecasts must be updated to specific scenarios.This study will use three growth scenarios: optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic (Zemba &;Hendrawan, 2018).Use the following formula to calculate the intrinsic value of a stock using the DCF method: = ∑   ( +   )  = = Revenue growth projections for each scenario (pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic) are determined by comparing industry growth with the Company's historical growth.If the Average Industry Growth is greater than the Company's Historical Growth, then the projection base in the pessimistic scenario is the Company's Historical Growth + (optimistic 0.5 is Industry Growth. If the Average Industry Growth is smaller than the Company's Historical Growth, the projection base in the pessimistic scenario is Industry Growth, and the projection base in the moderate scenario is the Company's Historical Growth.In contrast, the projection base in the pessimistic scenario is the Company's Historical Growth + (0.5 X (Company's Historical Growth -Industry Growth).
After knowing the value of industry growth and comparing it with historical growth, a projection of the growth value of each Company is obtained, as shown in Table 1 below.The criteria for valuing stocks based on Intrinsic Value using the DCF method is when Intrinsic Value < the market price of the stock, then the stock price is overvalued.The investment decision is to sell because the price can fall.Intrinsic Value = stock market price, so the stock price is reasonably appreciated.The investment decision is to hold (not sell or buy) until there comes a time when the estimated earnings will occur for the investor.Intrinsic Value > the market price of the stock, the stock price is in an undervalued position.The investment decision is to buy because the price can go up.The stock valuation results for each company will be discussed in the points below

PT Impack Pratama Industri (IMPC)
The financial behavior and average growth of IMPC are based on historical data from the financial statements for 2017-2021 as the basic assumptions of FCFF projections as seen in Table 2. Based on Table 3, in the DCF Method, IMPC shares are undervalued in all scenarios because the intrinsic value is above the market price on January 3, 2022, of IDR 231.82. (Pessimistic IDR480.08, moderate IDR798.67, optimistic IDR973.13).Using the RV-PER method, IMPC is undervalued in a pessimistic scenario because its intrinsic value is below the industry average of 12.00 times.The intrinsic value of PER IMPC is 11.2 times in the pessimistic scenario.
Intrinsic value is overvalued in the moderate scenario (18.77 times) and in the optimistic scenario (22.8 times), In the RV-PBV method, intrinsic value is overvalued in all scenarios because the intrinsic value is above the industry average of 1.19 times.They were 1.4 times in the pessimistic scenario, 2.3 times in the moderate scenario, and 2.8 times in the optimistic scenario.Overall, the intrinsic value of IMPC is within the industry range.

PT Arwana Citra Mulia (ARNA)
ARNA's financial behavior and average growth are based on historical data from financial statements for 2017-2021 as the basic assumptions for FCFF projections as seen in Table 4.  Based on Table 5, in the DCF Method, ARNA shares are undervalued in all scenarios because the intrinsic value is above the market price on January 3, 2022, of IDR 800.00.(pessimistic IDR1,033.22,moderate IDR1,118.68,optimistic IDR1,163.62).The RV-PER method overrated ARNA in all scenarios because the intrinsic value was greater than the industry average of 12.00 times.In the pessimistic scenario, the intrinsic value of PER ARNA is 15.9 times, 17.3 times in the moderate scenario, and 17.9 times in the optimistic scenario.The RV-PBV method overvalued intrinsic value in all scenarios because it was greater than the industry average of 1,190.In the pessimistic scenario, the intrinsic value of ARNA's PBV is 4.8 times, 5.2 times in the moderate scenario, and 5.4 times in the optimistic scenario.In both the PER and PBV methods, the intrinsic value of ARNA is within the industry range.

PT Mark Dynamics Indonesia (MARK)
MARK's financial behavior and average growth are based on historical data from the financial statements for 2017-2021 as the basic assumptions of FCFF projections as seen in Table 6.

Analys is
Based on Table 7, in the DCF Method, MARK stocks are considered overvalued in the pessimistic and moderate scenarios because their intrinsic value is below the market price on January 3, 2022, of IDR1,075.00(pessimistic IDR 280.52, moderate IDR742.28),while in the optimistic scenario, their intrinsic value is undervalued at IDR1,116.73.MARK is undervalued in all scenarios when using the RV-PER method because the intrinsic value is less than the industry average of 12.00 times.In the pessimistic scenario, the intrinsic value of PER MARK is 2.7 times, 7.2 times in the moderate scenario, and 10.8 times in the optimistic scenario.The RV-PBV method overvalued intrinsic value in all scenarios because it was greater than the industry average of 1,190.In the pessimistic scenario, the intrinsic value of the MARK's PBV is 1.4 times, 3.8 times in the moderate scenario, and 5.7 times in the optimistic scenario.Overall, the intrinsic value of MARK in the PER and PBV methods is within the industry range.

PT Hexindo Adiperkasa (HEXA)
The financial behavior and average growth of HEXA are based on historical data from the financial statements for March 2018 -March 2022 as the basic assumptions of FCFF projections as seen in Table 8.According to Table 9, in the DCF Method, HEXA shares are overvalued in the pessimistic scenario because the intrinsic value is lower than the market price on April 1, 2022, of IDR6,150.00,while the intrinsic value is undervalued in the moderate and optimistic scenario (moderate IDR8,023.03,optimistic IDR10,462.47).HEXA is undervalued in all scenarios when using the RV-PER method because the intrinsic value is less than the industry average of 12.00 times.In the pessimistic scenario, the intrinsic value of PER HEXA is 6.0 times, 8.5 times in the moderate scenario, and 11.1 times in the optimistic scenario.The RV-PBV method overvalued intrinsic value in all scenarios because it was greater than the industry average of 1,190.The intrinsic value of HEXA PBV is 2.1 times in the pessimistic scenario, 2.9 times in the moderate scenario, and 3.8 times in the optimistic scenario.Overall, the intrinsic value of HEXA in the PER and PBV methods is within the industry range.

PT United Tractors (UNTR)
UNTR's financial behavior and average growth are based on historical data from the 2017 -2021 financial statements as the basic assumptions of FCFF projections as seen in Table 10.).The RV-PER method overrated UNTR in all scenarios because its intrinsic value was higher than the industry average.The RV-PER method overrated UNTR in all scenarios because its intrinsic value was greater than the industry average of 12.00 times.In the pessimistic scenario, UNTR's PER is 21.4 times, 22.5 times in the moderate scenario, and 23.8 times in the optimistic scenario.In the RV-PBV method, the intrinsic value is overvalued in all scenarios because the intrinsic value is above the industry average of 1,190.The intrinsic value of UNTR's PBV is 3.2 times in the pessimistic scenario, 3.3 times in the moderate scenario, and 3.5 times in the optimistic scenario.Overall, UNTR's intrinsic value in both the PER and PBV methods is within the industry range.

Discussion
Industrial goods companies in Indonesia are an integral part of the industrial sector, playing a key role in producing and supplying goods for industrial needs.With innovative production and a commitment to quality, they provide a major contribution to Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).On average, 19.66% of each quarterly payment is contributed by industry subsectors.Investing in industrial goods companies can be a lucrative opportunity for both domestic and international investors.These companies often have strong market positions, making them an attractive option for those looking to diversify their investment portfolios.
DCF and RV methods can be used as a reference and help in future decision-making.This method is able to calculate the intrinsic value of a stock based on the fundamental analysis of the company, resulting in a more accurate estimate of the fair value of the stock.However, the market price of a stock does not reflect the true value of a company's shares as it is influenced by external factors.
The results showed that with the DCF-FCFF method, companies in the industrial goods sector such as IMPC, ARNA, and UNTR were undervalued in all scenarios.MARK is overvalued in the pessimistic and moderate scenarios and undervalued in the optimistic scenario.HEXA is overvalued in pessimistic scenarios and undervalued in moderate and optimistic scenarios.In relative assessments with the PER approach, ARNA and UNTR were overvalued in all scenarios whereas MARK and HEXA were overvalued.IMPC is undervalued in the pessimistic scenario and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenario.In the PPV approach, the IMPC, ARNA, MARK, HEXA, and UNTR were overvalued in all scenarios.

Conclusion
The study, which uses historical financial statement data for 5 years, has several limitations in assessing the dynamics that occur and affect the market and industry.The results of this study are only valid during 2022.In addition, the financial history data used in the study is currently being affected by the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, when certain businesses identified as at risk of failure suffered significant revenue losses.Further studies can be carried out in different normal years and/or by involving multiple companies.

Figure 3 :
Figure 3: Stock Price of Industrial Goods Company &; IDX Composite Share Price 2017-2022 Source: yahoo finance (processed data)

Figure 4 :
Figure 4: Stock price on the same evaluation date

Figure 5 :
Figure 5: Return on Shares of Industrial Goods & Companies IDX Composite Return 2017-2022 Source: yahoo finance (processed data) Kartawinata et al. (2022)lue of mining companies.Historical data from 2016 to 2020 and the DCF approach determined that MEDC and ELSA share prices were undervalued in all scenarios, while ESSA was overvalued in all scenarios.MEDC, ESSA, and ELSA were all undervalued by the RV approach in all cases.Soelistyo and Hendrawan (2022) calculated the average stock price of automotive subsector companies using historical data from 2016 to 2020.According to DCF and RV analysis, ASII and INDS stocks are overvalued in all scenarios, GJTL shares are overvalued in all scenarios, and SMSM shares are overvalued in pessimistic and moderate scenarios but undervalued in optimistic scenarios.Using Discounted Cash Flow and Relative Valuation,Kartawinata et al. (2022)analyzed the share prices of telecommunications companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.This research makes it possible to determine which telecommunications company's share price is at a reasonable, low, or high level.This study used descriptive quantitative methods.The results of this study show that telecommunications stock prices in Indonesia are at a reasonable level.Susanto and Rahadian (2021)examined the intrinsic value of shares of companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2018 using the FCFF and RV methods to calculate PER and PBV.Research shows that CPIN stocks are overvalued in pessimistic and moderate scenarios but undervalued in optimistic scenarios.JPFA was overrated in all scenarios, while MAIN was overrated in all scenarios.Hariyanto and Kristanti (2021) analyzed the average prices of four companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.

Table 1 :
Company's Revenue Growth Projections

Table 2 :
IMPC's Financial Conduct (IDR million)Based on Table2, the average annual growth was 17.1%, the Opex ratio was 82.6%, depreciation to revenue was 3.96%, Capex to revenue was 8.13% and working capital change was 2.16%.With 4,833,500,000 shares, net income of IDR206.59 billion, book value of equity IDR1.677 trillion, and WACC of 6.16%, the valuation for each scenario based on IMPC's equity value and financial behavior is shown in Table3.

Table 5 :
ARNA Assessment Results

Table 7 :
MARK Assessment Results

Table 8 :
HEXA Financial Conduct (USD thousand)Based on Table8, the average annual growth was 16.02%, the Opex ratio was 86.60%, depreciation to revenue was 1.18%, Capex to revenue was 0.44% and working capital change was 2.09%.With the number of shares being 840,000,000, net income being USD55.08 million, the book value of equity being USD159.70 million, and WACC being 15.39%, valuations for each scenario based on the equity value and financial conduct of HEXA are shown in table 9.

Table 9 :
HEXA Assessment Results

Table 10 :
UNTR Financial Behavior (IDR million)Table 10, the average annual growth was 8.50%, the Opex ratio was 74.19%, depreciation to revenue was 8.09%, Capex to revenue was 8.14% and the working capital change was -0.69%.With 3,730,135,136 shares, net income of IDR10.61 trillion, book value of equity IDR71.82trillion, and WACC of 9.85%, valuations for each scenario based on UNTR's equity value and financial behavior are shown in Table 11.

Table 11 :
UNTR Assessment ResultsBased on Table11, in the DCF Method, UNTR shares are undervalued in all scenarios because the intrinsic value is above the market price on January 3, 2022, of IDR 21,900.00(pessimistic60,762.90,moderate IDR 64,079.41,optimistic IDR 67,614.37